ARTICLES
Worries over Nigeria's Fledgling Democracy
By Thompson Ayodele
8 April 2003
Nigerians in a matter of days will file out to cast their votes in series of elections into federal, state and local government elective posts. This will be the second election after the military relinquished power on May 29,1999 having held sway for over 15 years. Those were the years many Nigerians would not like to forget easily. Lots of people were killed, jailed in phantom coup plots, the press was repressed, flagrant abuse of human rights became rampart and lies and falsehood became the official policy. The institutions that make a society rich and prosperous were decimated, abused or destroyed.
It was not surprising that Nigerians were joyous when the civil rule was inaugurated. At the venue, firecrackers rented the air. Air Force planes painted national colours in the sky. The mood and expression was that of hope, re-assurance and national rebirth. Still basking in the euphoria of a new administration, several parts were engulfed in orgy of sectarian and ethnic violence. From Lagos to Ibadan, Shagamu to Ile-Ife, Jos to Yola, Kaduna to Kano, Benin to Warri and from Enugu to Port Harcourt, the story is all the same: violence rocked every part of the country. Many local militias surfaced. They constituted themselves into a veritable weapon to unleash violence on their perceived enemies or other ethnic groups at slightest 'provocation'. Whatever might have been the case, sectarian and ethnic violence became the chief threat to the nation's democracy and prosperity.
Adding salt to the existing injury is the spate of political violence and political assassinations that have become prevalent. The assassination of the Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the federation remains unresolved with his killers still unidentified. This set the pace for what to be expected in other parts of the country. Within the last few months every part of the country has witnessed some form of political killings, assassinations and violence. Security reports had listed about 13 states of the federation which are more prone to wide-scale violence during the election. Visibly shaken and concerned with the spate of killings, President Obasanjo has been consistently been holding meetings with political leaders admonishing them to embrace peace during the elections.
Those who would like to see substantial progress and conducive clime for economic growth and investment should be concerned. What is happening in political arena is politics of survival. Politics has been seen as an easy way to wealth. Fierce contestation among politicians is all about who controls the resources and not service to the people as widely claimed. The scramble for elective posts is heightened because the country's resources and assets are in government control. The state continues to restrict use and rights on land 'it does not own.' Licensing of business units is still at government's wide discretion. Whoever controls the reign of government ultimately controls the resources and everything that are attached to the office.
Politics has been monitized. It is strictly a business affair, on cash and carry basis. Many candidates secured loan to pursue their political ambitions. Political funders are meant to secure political favour should the candidate eventually win. It is financially prudent to ensure that the loan or donation is used to prosecute what it is meant for, else candidates risk becoming heavily indebted or donors lose their donations.
Irrespective of the motive, decency requires that peace must be embraced. Whenever the military take over, it cites protracted violence as one of its reasons. Should the tempo of the current political killings is not nipped in the bud, any military adventurer could seize the opportunity again. Ultimately, that might signal the death kernel of the nation's nascent democracy. The violence notwithstanding, many have been alluding to India, the largest democracy in the world, whose democracy is not immune from violence of any kind and yet its military has not taken over the reign of power. Nigerian military had tasted power and could be tempted to stage a comeback. On the contrary, the Indian military that has limited itself to its constitutional functions and roles.
Democracy provides the unique opportunity for everyone to dialogue and iron out differences should any arise. This will provide the framework on how to settle dispute amicably. The institution of peaceful dispute resolution is pivotal to the survival of democracy and sustainable growth and prosperity. When the institution of killings is entrenched as the means of dispute resolution, the rule of law is gravely weakened. In that kind of environment, it will be the rule of the mighty and powerful individuals.
The direct consequence is insecure property. Property rights is meaningless without an effective rule of law. When rule of law is in jeopardy, that is a red flag to both local and foreign investors. The rate of capital flight in Nigeria is about $1.4 billion yearly. The rate is expected to double if the rule of law is threatened and property is insecure. Property owners will incur additional transaction costs in order to protect their property. The ability to attract credible foreign investors will be a pipe dream. According to the U.N World Investment Report 2002, the total foreign direct investment (FDI) was $1.104b. This is comparable to $6.653b in South Africa, $1.196b in Algeria and $1.119b in Angola.
Democracy provides the foundation upon which a prosperous society can be built. If the foundation is crisis-ridden, the entire superstructure is bound to collapse. This will undermine growth. Studies have shown that developed economic institutions, including the rule of law, cordial co-existence among tiers of government, protection of property, checks against corruption, democratic accountability and peaceful political transition positively enhance improved economic performance and prosperity.
The first four years of the civil rule is embroiled with frequent executive and legislative face-offs that almost grind government to a halt. In spite of attempts to check rampart corruption in public office, efforts are surreptitiously being made by some vested interests to thwart such efforts. In advancing their selfish course, the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission's authority power has been clipped by the national assembly, all in an attempt to weaken the anti-corruption law.
Attempt to cut corruption to size in Nigeria is a herculean task. It is a dirty job, so to say, that must be done by someone. The road to eradicating the scourge is first, reduce the discretionary power available to public officials. The power that allows them to grant some licenses and denies others. Second, allow the people themselves to control the resources found in their areas, collect taxes from such and remit certain percentages to the central government. Third, deregulate sectors that government has been monopolizing for years. This must be coupled with the private provision of certain essential services at government's domain and ceding most public enterprises to credible private individuals.
The surest way to prosperity and progress is quite simple. All the encumbrances that threatened evolvement of the culture of free enterprise and the enthronement of genuine democracy must be expunged. The culture of violence threatens democracy and by implication the rule of law and free enterprise. Absence of effective rule of law inhibits economic development because it displaces peaceful ways of resolving conflicts and to form institutions of trust, and security of property become illusory. Inadequate enforcement of legal rules, delays in obtaining legal relief and corruption all hamper and grossly distort economic development.
The result will be economic, institutional and political catastrophe. When violence reigns, economic and political development becomes a mirage, planning ahead is foolhardy and trusting anyone other than closest intimates is a potentially fatal mistake. Ultimately, most economic activity lurks in the shadows on the smallest of small scales.
Thompson Ayodele (thompson-at-ippanigeria.org -- replace -at- with @) is the coordinator of the Institute of Public Policy Analysis in Lagos, Nigeria.