ARTICLES
Population Growth: False Conceptions of Problem and Cure
By Thompson Ayodele*
The Nigerian government recently said the country’s burgeoning population is its greatest obstacle to economic growth and prosperity. The Obasanjo administration is convinced that married couples give lives to many babies and that holds back economic development. It believes high fertility rate has resulted in economic growth being slowed and the only solution to achieve high growth is for the birth rate to drop.
Worried that allowing the population to grow at its present rate will ultimately be too much for the economy to bear, the Minister of Health, Professor Eyitayo Lambo, rising from Federal Executive Council meeting, said the government has approved a new population policy that would force Nigeria’s population growth rate from between 2.5% and 3 % at present to not more than 2 % by the year 2015.
The new policy, borne out of the expectation to align the growth rate of the population to that of the economy, is a review of the 1988 population policy which stipulates four children per household. It would ensure modern contraceptive prevalence rate grows in Nigeria so that population growth can be tamed. The minister said: “If we grow at the rate at which we are growing, the projection is that by the year 2025, Nigeria will have about 400 million people and that will be too much for the resources of the economy."
One may be tempted to say officials do not really grasp why growth is retarded and economic prosperity is elusive. The idea that more people hinder growth was falsified by some economic statisticians three decades ago. It only draws attention from real barriers to economic growth and prosperity. Nigerians deserve to know nothing but the truth. Nigeria population, estimated to be 130 million, is not the cause of the nation’s economic woes. It is ill-conceived for anyone either by executive fiat or policy formulation to consider reducing population growth rate by any method whatsoever.
Every demographer knows that death rate has continued to fall worldwide. Life expectancy has also tripled in developed countries in the past two centuries while it has continued to double in developing countries in the past five decades. What is so unique in both rich and developing countries is the conquest of premature death. Thus the world population rose astronomically from just 1 billion in the 19th century to almost 5 billion in the 21st century. If high population inhibits growth, then the whole world would still be in Stone Age.
In spite of the growing population worldwide, the resource which has increasingly become scarce is the people, as shown in how much we pay to obtain their services. The pay-cheques and other emoluments for all categories of workers and appointed politicians have been going up globally. This shows people are more scarce and costly despite there are more people on earth. High wages and salaries is one of the reasons some firms opt for causal workers. The fear of natural resources depletion as a result of more people is baseless. Every resource economist knows natural resources (with some exceptions) have been getting more and more available as shown by their falling prices relative to salaries and wages over the past decades.
Only human beings have ability to trade, generate wealth, barter and exchange. Politicians and more other people are finding it more economic to live in areas where the population is high before relocating to their villages. There are more rich people and millionaires in densely populated cities and towns like Lagos, Kano, Ibadan, Enugu, Kaduna and Port Harcourt than a ‘vacant’ countryside. This is because these areas generate wealth.
A densely populated Nigeria does not pose danger to its march towards prosperity and economic growth. Urbanization is the cure to high population growth rates. Those who urbanize their existence find it economic to opt for small families. Politicians need not embark on any expensive strategies just to slow down population growth rate. They should let parents know they are responsible for the costs of raising and educating their children rather than deceiving them with political propaganda of free education and free health services for all.
Nigerian has a community of skilled traders and talented populace who can generate wealth for the nation. Instead some industries are protected by tariff walls or outright ban. Petty street traders have their goods burnt or stalls demolished by some councils or task forces in attempt to clean up towns and cities. What slow growth in Nigeria is the policies which the government has chosen to pursue which in turn hinder entrepreneurship. Nigerians need appropriate social and economic framework that provides incentives for working hard and taking risks, thus enabling their talents and skills to flourish and come to fruition.
The key elements of such framework are appropriate institutions, respect for property, economic freedom and fair and sensible rules of the market which are enforced equally for all. Institutions that reward integrity, encourage responsibility and trust, peaceful resolution of conflicts and lower transaction costs provide a fertile ground for economic growth and development to take root. Ironically, these are virtually non-existent. These are issues which should top the agenda of the Federal Executive Council meeting and not the attempt to control the numbers of new babies.
*Thompson Ayodele (email thompson -at- ippanigeria.org) is the Coordinator of the Institute of Public Policy Analysis in Lagos, Nigeria.